Should I Wait for Mortgage Rates to Drop Before Buying a House in Texas? The October 2026 Math

Freddie Mac's survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.40% for the week of October 8, 2026. That's the seventh straight weekly increase, up from 6.71% in early September and 6.30% a year ago, and the highest average since November 2023. So the question I'm getting more than any other right now is the obvious one: should I just wait for rates to come down?

I'm Bond Peter Njoku (NMLS #2670329), a mortgage loan officer in Garland. I'm not going to tell you rates are about to fall, because I don't know that, and neither does anyone else. What I can do is show you the actual math on waiting versus buying, using real DFW numbers, so you can make the call yourself.

How much would a lower rate actually save me?

Less than most people think. Here's the principal-and-interest payment on common DFW loan amounts at today's rate and at two "rates fell" scenarios:

A full one-point drop on a $350,000 loan is worth about $234 a month. That's real money. But it has to be weighed against what waiting costs, and that's the part buyers skip.

What does waiting six months actually cost?

Let's take a realistic DFW buyer: a $350,000 home in Garland or Mesquite, 5% down, currently renting for $1,850 a month. Compare buying now at 7.40% against waiting six months and buying at 6.90%, under two price outcomes.

Two things jump out. First, even in the best case, where rates drop half a point and prices don't move, it takes about eight years of lower payments to earn back the six months of rent. Second, a 3% price increase wipes out most of the payment savings, and you'd bring more cash to closing. Rent paid isn't entirely "lost" money, since owning has its own costs, but it builds no equity, and the comparison holds up even after accounting for that.

And the scenario where rates don't fall, or keep climbing, has no upside at all for the person who waited. Rates have risen seven weeks in a row, and the Fed raised its benchmark in September and signaled it might do so again.

Can't I just buy now and refinance later?

Yes, and that's the real argument for buying now. If rates fall meaningfully, you refinance and capture the lower rate. If they don't, you already own the house. But "date the rate, marry the house" is oversold, so here's the fine print:

• Refinancing costs money. Plan on 2%–3% of the loan amount. On a $332,500 loan, that's roughly $6,650 to $9,975.
• You need a big enough drop. At a $112 monthly savings, $8,000 in costs takes about 71 months to recoup. A drop of 0.75% to 1.00% or more is where refinancing usually makes sense.
• You still have to qualify. If your income, credit, or home value changes, a refinance isn't guaranteed. FHA and VA streamline programs help here, which is one reason I sometimes favor them for buyers who expect to refinance.

The rule I give every client: buy only if today's payment works for your budget on its own. A future refinance should be a bonus, not the plan that makes the numbers work. My refinance break-even guide shows how to run that test when the time comes.

Is right now actually a good time to negotiate in DFW?

In one important way, yes. Texas A&M's Real Estate Research Center reported DFW prices softening slightly year over year through spring 2026, and sellers were cutting a median of about $15,000, or 3.6%, off their original list price. High rates keep some buyers on the sidelines, which gives the buyers who are shopping more leverage.

That leverage is worth real money. A seller concession can pay your closing costs or buy your rate down. On a $332,500 loan, a $10,000 seller credit used for discount points can buy your rate down meaningfully, a permanent savings that doesn't depend on the market. I show the conversion math in my seller concession buydown guide. When rates do fall, more buyers come back and that leverage tends to disappear.

A Garland buyer who almost waited

Here's a composite example. A couple renting in Garland for $1,800 a month were pre-approved this summer and decided in September to "wait for rates to come down." By early October they called me back, because their pre-approval amount had shrunk as rates rose.

We reran their numbers at 7.40%. A $325,000 home still fit their budget with an FHA loan and a TSAHC down payment assistance grant. The seller on the house they liked had already cut the price twice, and agreed to an $8,500 credit toward closing costs and a rate buydown. Their payment came in at a level they were comfortable with even if rates never fell. If rates drop a point or more in the next couple of years, an FHA streamline refinance is available to them. If rates don't drop, they still own a home bought with seller money on the table.

When is waiting the right call?

Waiting makes sense, and I'll tell you so, if:

• The payment at today's rate would strain your budget. Don't buy a house you can only afford after a refinance that may never come.
• Your job or income is uncertain, or you're about to change jobs.
• You'll likely move within 3 to 5 years. Closing costs on both ends eat into short ownership.
• Your credit score is close to a pricing tier. A few months of credit work can lower your rate more than the market does. My credit score pricing guide explains the tiers.
• You don't have reserves after closing. Owning a home in Texas comes with tax and insurance bills; you want a cushion.

Otherwise, the decision isn't really "now or later." It's "does this house, at this price, at today's payment, work for my life?" If yes, rates are a secondary question. If you want help answering it, I'll run both paths with your real numbers.